Monday, September 10, 2012
Law of Averages
I put in over 3500 miles since April 2011 and given those miles, I would think I would get a few flats on my bike every now and then. I was doing pretty good and did not get a flat until July 2012 so to go 15 months without a single flat is statistically a couple standard deviations off my average. When I used to ride a lot I would get a flat once every couple months. So, I wasn't sure what I was doing right but I didn't complain. Then came the first flat. Downhill on Day Creek Blvd at 35 miles per hour after hitting a pothole. Next one was on Banyan Street after rolling over a staple. And then I got a snakebit puncture cornering from Wilson to Milliken. Three flats in the 60 days of July-August. Then came September. I had been riding with the kids and for the past 3 weekends I would do 20 miles each on Saturday and Sunday with them. However, the last 3 rides I've done with them, I got 2 flats and JJ got one. Just me alone, that's a total of 5 flats in the past 16 months but all within the last 9 weeks. (I'm particularly paranoid about flats because I don't really have anyone to pick me up if for some reason, my spare doesn't work -- at least until one of the kids can drive a car.) Given my luck, I'm expecting a couple more in September in order for me to get to my average of one flat every 2 months. There's just way too much crap on these roads.