Monday, September 10, 2012

Law of Averages

I put in over 3500 miles since April 2011 and given those miles, I would think I would get a few flats on my bike every now and then.  I was doing pretty good and did not get a flat until July 2012 so to go 15 months without a single flat is statistically a couple standard deviations off my average.  When I used to ride a lot I would get a flat once every couple months.  So, I wasn't sure what I was doing right but I didn't complain.  Then came the first flat.  Downhill on Day Creek Blvd at 35 miles per hour after hitting a pothole.  Next one was on Banyan Street after rolling over a staple.  And then I got a snakebit puncture cornering from Wilson to Milliken.  Three flats in the 60 days of July-August.  Then came September.  I had been riding with the kids and for the past 3 weekends I would do 20 miles each on Saturday and Sunday with them.  However, the last 3 rides I've done with them, I got 2 flats and JJ got one.  Just me alone, that's a total of 5 flats in the past 16 months but all within the last 9 weeks.  (I'm particularly paranoid about flats because I don't really have anyone to pick me up if for some reason, my spare doesn't work -- at least until one of the kids can drive a car.)  Given my luck, I'm expecting a couple more in September in order for me to get to my average of one flat every 2 months.  There's just way too much crap on these roads.

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